This page links to a collection of graphs related to the IPv4 pool.
These are snapshots in time related to past behavior. As such, any
projections should be considered “best case” because future
mob behavior is likely to result in a run-on-the-bank.

The state of the entire IPv4 pool as allocated by IANA:
IANA pool

The IANA pool burn rate has flattened since this was originally
shown in mid-2005. This graph shows a smoothed version of the
actual intermittent allocations.
IANA burn rate

The next graph shows the annual distribution rate for each RIR
to their customers. The current year includes a year-to-date based
projection as a simple daily normalized rate multiplied by 365.25.
It does not attempt to adjust for annual rate differences due to
holiday periods. One thing that it does show is the global economic
impact, as the 2008/9 rates look very similar to the 2001/2 rates.
RIR delegations to customers

Taken together, the previous two graphs show that the draw rate
by the RIRs does not match the outbound rate to their customers. To
accomplish this, their internal pools have been diminishing. Policy
allows for each RIR to have an internal pool sufficient for 2 years of
projected need. While this graph is based on actual past allocations to
customers, the only way it could represent 2 years of projected need is
for each RIR to expect a decline in demand. The result means there will
not be an extended period that many expect between the exhaustion of
the central IANA pool and the individual RIR pools.
RIR pool depth trend

The spike in pool depth for ARIN on February 14, 2010 leaves them
with more effective pool than Lacnic. Since they were arguably sitting
at the policy allowed 24 months prior to that allocation from IANA,
this clearly represented an abnormal event. Both ARIN and IANA confirmed
that the allocation was done according to policy, which implies that
ARIN will in turn allocate more than 1 /8 to their customers within the
next few weeks. The open question is if this is the catalyst
that triggers a run on the rest of the RIR pools ...

Basing the projection from the inflection point in the IANA burn
rate at the year 2000, the end of that pool keeps shifting in time
due to the intermittent nature of the IANA to RIR allocations.
At the same time, this is the focus of most people’s attention.
IANA exhaustion date

A much more stable graph is the one based on the total pool
including the RIR internal holdings with the allocations to end
customers. This one has not changed significantly since 2005.
RIR exhaustion date

The combined view is inverted because I am too lazy to fix the tool
but it shows the trend of each RIR, along with their collective trend,
and the central IANA pool. At various points in time the top 2 curves
have crossed, as the RIR draw rate has dipped well below their outbound
rate. This is clearly unsustainable and can’t happen in practice.
The white lines show the time window between IANA to RIR cumulative
allocation, vs. the allocation of that many from RIRs to end customers.
Combined view

None of those predictions are particularly accurate, because they
include the last 5 /8's as 'available', while IANA and RIR policy have
already set those aside to be allocated for transition to IPv6 uses.
Taking the smoothed IANA burn rate at ~ .8 /8's per month, those 5 final
/8's represent around 10 months shortening in the IANA curve. It is
harder to calcualte the impact on the collective RIR pool as their
run rates are all different, so as each drops out of the pool that
date will suddenly make dramatic changes.

A Fractal Map of the space was developed by Randall Munroe.
Sequencing that over time provides some perspective.
Fractal Map

Taking the big picture view, the 30 year graph of the IANA pool is
an interesting thing to contemplate.
30 year

EMAIL: tony@tndh.net ahain@cisco.com

Link: http://www.tndh.net/~tony