6:40am pst Feb. 3, 2011 -- The central pool of IPv4 addresses is depleted!

4:56am +1000 (EST) Apr. 15 2011 -- APnic announces initation of the 'final /8 policy'.

This page links to a collection of graphs related to the IPv4 pool.
All of the attempts at projections are now moot, because IANA is down to the
"last 5", and has distributed one of those to each RIR in a final cerimony
announced here.

The state of the entire IPv4 pool as allocated by IANA:
IANA pool

The IANA pool burn rate flattened after this was originally
shown in mid-2005. This graph shows a smoothed version of the
actual intermittent allocations. Toward the end where the RIR's
had exhausted their internal pools, this graph returned
to a growth pattern that matches the actual outbound
compound growth rate from the RIR's.
IANA burn rate

The next graph shows the annual distribution rate for each RIR
to their customers. The current year includes a year-to-date based
projection as a simple daily normalized rate multiplied by 365.25.

Note that the APnic rate continues unabated, with the month of
January 2011 hitting 1.389 /8's assigned.

It does not attempt to adjust for annual rate differences due to
holiday periods. One thing that it does show is the global economic
impact, as the 2008/9 rates look very similar to the 2001/2 rates,
and that the first half of 2010 is dramatically up.
RIR delegations to customers

Taken together, the previous two graphs show that the draw rate
by the RIRs does not match the outbound rate to their customers. To
accomplish this, their internal pools have been diminishing. Policy
allows for each RIR to have an internal pool sufficient for 2 years of
projected need. While this graph is based on actual past allocations to
customers, the only way it could represent 2 years of projected need is
for each RIR to expect a decline in demand. The result means there will
not be an extended period that many expect between the exhaustion of
the central IANA pool and the individual RIR pools.
RIR pool depth trend

There was a request for exhaustion dates for each RIR, so in the
interest of 'multiple opinions never hurt' the next graphs attempt to
do that. The y axis is the collective set of addresses remaining at
each RIR in /8 equivalent units.
RIR pool exhaustion dates (pdf) (jpg)

Though that is a little hard to sort out for 2011, so this one zooms in.
RIR pool exhaustion dates zoomed in (pdf) (jpg)

An interesting thing to note is that during the height of the dot-com bubble
the collective RIR distribution rate to their members was the equivalent of a
/24 every 3 minutes. Now under much more stringent policies about who qualifies
and how efficient the space must be utilized before getting more, for the month of
March '11 the event window of a /24 equivalent was 14.08 seconds.

A Fractal Map of the space was developed by Randall Munroe.
Sequencing that over time provides some perspective.
Fractal Map

Taking the big picture view, the 30 year graph of the IANA pool is
an interesting thing to contemplate.
30 year

EMAIL: tony@tndh.net ahain@cisco.com

Link: http://www.tndh.net/~tony